June 2025 marked a continuation of key macro trends shaping the U.S. energy landscape. Natural gas production remained elevated, demand from both domestic and export channels showed year-over-year growth, and storage levels continued to build above seasonal norms. Structural drivers such as rising electricity consumption—particularly from commercial and data-intensive sectors—and strong LNG exports remained central to market dynamics. At the same time, weather patterns added volatility, with early-month heat giving way to cooler conditions that softened short-term demand. These fundamentals, combined with evolving policy signals and global economic indicators, kept markets balanced yet sensitive. On the trading side, natural gas prices settled lower on the month, with prompt-month NYMEX closing at $3.70/MMBtu, while WTI crude oil fell to $68.51/bbl following a sharp one-day decline tied to easing geopolitical tensions. 

Bull Factors: 

-LNG exports held strong, averaging 15.2 Bcf/day in June — up from 12.9 Bcf/day during the same period last year, which reduces domestic supply and tightens the market, helping support wholesale natural gas prices.

-Residential and commercial gas demand averaged 27.8 Bcf/day year-to-date, significantly higher than 21.6 Bcf/day last year, adding pressure to supply and storage levels that could lead to higher prices in the event of weather-driven demand spikes.

-Electricity demand is on the rise, particularly from data centers and commercial buildings, which increases reliance on natural gas-fired power generation and puts long-term upward pressure on gas and power prices.

-Energy storage and grid modernization efforts continue to expand nationally, supporting long-term reliability and flexibility—factors that could elevate future power prices and demand for firm generation sources.

-Short-term weather was bullish early in June, with a heat dome pushing up spot prices in the Mid-Atlantic, highlighting how sudden weather shifts can tighten power markets and drive short-term natural gas demand.

-Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—particularly threats to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which nearly 20% of global oil supply moves—introduced volatility and risk premium to global energy markets. Any perceived threat to the safe passage of oil and LNG shipments through the strait raises concerns of global supply disruptions, which can ripple into U.S. energy pricing and investor sentiment, even when domestic fundamentals remain stable.

Bear Factors:

-Gas storage climbed by 95 Bcf for the week ending June 13, reaching 2,802 Bcf-162 Bcf above the five-year average, signaling an oversupplied market that’s likely to keep prices subdued unless demand significantly increases.

-Dry gas production held steady, averaging 106.2 Bcf/day in June, maintaining a high supply baseline that limits price movement even when short-term demand surges.

-Crude oil sold off sharply, with WTI dropping $5.53 as Middle East tensions eased; lower oil prices reduce cost pressure across the broader energy complex and contribute to a more bearish market tone.

Final Takeaways:

June underscored the balancing act between resilient supply and gradually rising demand. While structural growth drivers—like electrification, exports, and baseline commercial load—continue to support the market, high production levels and mild weather have kept near-term prices in check. Geopolitical developments remain a key wildcard; while oil sold off on cease-fire news, tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved and could resurface quickly. Looking ahead, the market remains highly sensitive to weather, policy, and global events. With above-normal heat forecast in parts of the U.S. for July, a tightening of supply-demand dynamics is possible.